Five Russian spacecraft from the “Kosmos” series have altered their flight parameters and entered the orbital plane of the ICEYE-X36 satellite, whose capabilities are utilized by Ukraine to gather radar data. The maneuvers attracted the attention of specialists due to an unusual change in orbital inclination and the potential opportunity for further close proximity operations with the spacecraft. The satellites involved are “Kosmos-2610”, “Kosmos-2611”, “Kosmos-2612”, “Kosmos-2613”, and “Kosmos-2614”. According to open-source orbit tracking services, these spacecraft changed their movement parameters, aligning their orbital geometry closely with that of ICEYE-X36. The official purpose of the Russian satellites has not been publicly disclosed.

During the maneuvers, the orbital inclination of the Russian spacecraft shifted from approximately 97.0 to 97.8 degrees. As a result, they ended up in the same or a very similar orbital plane as ICEYE-X36. For satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), changing inclination is an energy-intensive maneuver, which is why experts view such actions as potentially significant. Following the orbital adjustments, the Russian spacecraft found themselves in a geometric alignment that could allow them to perform further maneuvers relative to ICEYE-X36. Depending on the satellites’ positions along the orbit and their relative speeds, the distance between the spacecraft may vary. However, simply being in the same orbital plane does not imply immediate rendezvous or close approach.

ICEYE-X36 is equipped with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Such satellites can capture images of the Earth’s surface regardless of the time of day or cloud cover, as they rely on radar signals rather than visible light. ICEYE has been collaborating with Ukraine since 2022. Under signed agreements, the Ukrainian side was granted access to the capabilities of the ICEYE satellite constellation and radar observation data. The acquired information is used to support tasks related to situational awareness and Ukraine’s defense.

The insertion of Russian spacecraft into ICEYE-X36’s orbital plane could have several possible explanations. The satellites might be used to monitor the foreign spacecraft, practice maneuvering and approach technologies, or conduct inspection operations. In the space industry, such activities fall under the category of RPO—Rendezvous and Proximity Operations—which involve maneuvering and operating in close proximity to another spacecraft. These technologies can have both civilian and military applications.

At the same time, there is no open-source evidence suggesting that the Russian satellites are preparing an attack on ICEYE-X36. Nor is there confirmation that the spacecraft are equipped with anti-satellite weaponry or have employed electronic jamming, laser, or microwave countermeasures against ICEYE. The exact objective of the maneuvers remains unknown. Determining the true intent will require monitoring further orbital changes, actual distances between the spacecraft, and the nature of subsequent maneuvers.

This situation highlights the growing significance of commercial space infrastructure in modern armed conflicts. Remote sensing, communications, and navigation satellites owned by private companies are increasingly being used to solve military-relevant tasks. Therefore, the ability of Russian military spacecraft to maneuver within the orbital plane of an ICEYE satellite used in Ukraine’s interests is viewed as an important episode for contemporary space security. However, at present, it is more accurate to characterize the event as unusual orbital maneuvering and a potential opportunity for further close approach, rather than a confirmed preparation for an attack.